Select_Pace_Rating/Jockey_Method
Select_Pace_Class_Jockey_Method
Select Pace Rating Method
After the user selects this feature, QuickHorse will use its "Pace Rating Method" to display the anticipated results of the Race Card Selected. Race Cards (Race Programs) are chosen using the FILE Menu Bar item of QuickHorse.
A sample display of the Pace Rating Method is shown below, and the method's calculations are also explained below. This User's Guide section only discusses the calculations used in this method. For information about how to interact with the settings and other navigation please click on the "Select_Standard_Method" feature on the menu at the left side of this page.
Figure 1 - The Pace Rating Method Handicapping Display
Before going further with an explanation of what each column of this method represents, the user may notice that instead of one longer rectangular button surrounding the weighting factors, each weighting factor appears in an individual button along with a shorthand description of the column.
This method also requires that the user be familiar with the Brohamer Pace Figures:
1Fr, 2Fr, 3Fr, EP, SP, AP, FX, Energy (PCT E)
To find information on these figures, search google.com for -
"Brohamer Pace Figures"
Each column of this method averages the PACE RATINGS for each of the 8 Brohamer Pace Figures. PACE RATINGS are different the PACE VALUES as
follows -
PACE VALUES are velocities. In other words an average velocity a horse was
going during a portion of the race. You may notice that in shorter races
horses have higher pace values in the 1st Quarter Mile than they do going longer
distances. A Pace Rating is different from a Pace Value and actually
ranks horses at a particular track running a particular distance based on the
Pace Values they scored in each of the Brohamer calculations.
A Pace Rating of 75, for example, would mean that this horse's particular Pace Value is better than 75% of the horses running in the same type of race at this same track over the past 5 years. Though this is all you need to know, if you want to know more of how these figures are calculated, then the following section gives more detail.
So, unlike Pace Values which only give a score, a Pace Rating will give a score which also indicates how a horse compares to other horses who've run the same type of race. Otherwise you may skip the following section.
HOW QUICKHORSE CALCULATES PACE RATINGS
"First Cut Pace Ratings" are initially derived by creating an AVERAGE PACE VALUE for each distance at each track. Then a standard deviation is calculated. By definition and because the values are expected to be normalized statistically (which means most are closer to the average value and as the pace ratings increase fewer and fewer horses are good enough to receive those pace ratings), then 98% of all horses will fall into 2 standard deviations from the average pace figures.
All horses are given a first cut pace rating, and these ratings lumped into "percentiles", from 0 to 99. For example, all horses receiving a pace rating of between zero and 1 are counted and that becomes the 0th PERCENTILE. In other words these horses were better than NO OTHERS. All horses that received a Pace Rating of 99 up to 100 are placed in the 99th Percentile. These horses had Pace Values better than 99% of the other horses.
Once these 100 table values are created, the aforementioned Pace
Values are again used along with 2 Standard Deviations from the mean of their
average to calculate what is known in statistics as a Z-SCORE. A Z Score
is the number of standard deviations away from the mean that the Pace Value
falls on a normalized curve. This Z score is then converted to normalized
value between 0 and 99. This normalized Z Score is then used as an index
into the Percentile table of the last paragraph. A count is performed of
all the scores in the percentile table UP TO but not including that table entry
indexed by the Z Score. For example, if a horse's pace value scores a
normalized Z score of 71, then the Percentile table score counts from entries 0
through 70 are added together as a count of horses that scored lower than this
horse did. That sum is then divided by the total number of horse's scores
for the past 5 years at this track. That result is multiplied by
100. This final result is the Pace Rating for a particular horse's outing.
Keep this in mind as you look at this method. The scores shown are averages and
do actually show how many horses this horse has outdone.
THE PACE RATING METHOD COLUMN CALCULATIONS
The figures shown for each horse in each column are an average of the horses outings
for each of the 8 Brohamer Pace Values, and that average is based on the METHOD FILTER you set
(see "SET METHOD FILTERS" on the handicapping display) for the number of races to use.
Each column calculated score is used along with a multiplier (weighting factor)
which can be changed by the user in order to come to a total score based on the
values for each horse. The score for each column is calculated in the same
way as it is for a Column in the Standard Method. This score is not the
VALUE of but rather a NORMALIZED score based on the average scores for all the
horses using minus and plus 3 standard deviations from the mean as a range for
all scores. See the Standard Method features for a better explanation of
"normalized column scoring".
This handicapping method has been created by our Custom Method Builder and the
reader may use the Custom Method Builder to see exactly how it is programmed.