Select_Pace_Rating/Jockey_Method
Select_Pace_Class_Jockey_Method
Select Pace Rating Class Jockey Method
After the user selects this feature, QuickHorse will use its "Pace Rating Class Jockey Method" to display the anticipated results of the Race Card Selected. Race Cards (Race Programs) are chosen using the FILE Menu Bar item of QuickHorse.
A sample display of the Pace Rating Class Jockey Method is shown below, and the method's calculations are also explained below. This User's Guide section only discusses the calculations used in this method. For information about how to interact with the settings and other navigation please click on the "Select_Standard_Method" feature on the menu at the left side of this page.
Figure 1 - The Pace Rating Class Jockey Method Handicapping Display
Note that with the exception of the 7th and 8th columns, this method is identical to the PACE RATING METHOD. The seventh column provides an average CLASS RATING for the horse. The higher this average the better class horse. The eighth column gives the QuickHorse Jockey Rating for the Jockey who is expected to ride this horse in this race. The higher a jockey's rating the better.
Class Rating is calculated in the following way -
To begin with, a class rating is always a value from 0 to 100. Quickhorse uses a tiered system of classes. What this means is that, for example, all Claiming including Optional Claiming, Maiden Claiming and Maiden Special Weights will always have class ratings of between 0 and 50. Therefore if you see a class rating of 35, then you know immediately what sorts of races this horse has competed in. Obviously the higher the number (up to 49), the classier the horse. In QuickHorse lingo we call this horse a Tier 1 horse. As such, and since races also have class ratings (called Race Ratings), you can use the Tier as a way of grouping races for Supertune and Backtest. This means you can create tuned Track Profiles for Tier 1 types of races. There are two other tiers.
Now let's look at that a Tier 2 Class is. After Claiming Races we move to Allowance Type races. The very lowest class rating a horse will get for participating in an Allowance Race is 50. Tier 2 class also includes non-graded handicap or stakes races along with starter handicap races. T or Trial Races are also included in Tier 2 races. A horse will receive a class rating of between 50 and up to but not including 80 for these types of races. Again, the higher the value, the better class the horse is in.
Tier 3 Class runs from 80 on up to 100 and includes Graded Stakes/Handicap races only. If a horse starts in this type of race, that horse will automatically be given at least an 80 for a class value.
How does QuickHorse compute the class rating for a particular horse? The first part, you already know, it begins with the Tiered Class Value - 0, 50, or 80. To this value is added an offset which is computing using statistics. QuickHorse maintains a table of values which represent average speed ratings for every distance competed in each Tier over the past 5 years. In much the same way as QuickHorse Speed Ratings are produced using these pars and their associated standard deviations, QuickHorse ranks a horse's Speed Rating for its last race compared to all others who have raced in that tier in the past 5 years.
For example, using this math, for a Claiming Tier 1 Class race, we begin at zero, then add an offset. Suppose this horse ran a speed rating its last race which was better than 30 percent of all horses in the past 5 years running in that Tier. A value of 0 + (30% of 50) = a Class Rating of 15. Only if the horse had run as well as every other horse in this Tier would its class be 49.999 - the highest rating allowed for Tier 1.
In conclusion, when you look at this class value, you can immediately know what type of race the horse competed in last time out. For example, all of these horses were in Tier 1 races last time out (excluding filtered races) with the exception of B Z WARRIOR with a Class Rating of 55, which indicates an allowance race history. A user can quickly check this horse's race history to determine how much a factor this might be. As is indicated by the results, B Z Warrior placed in this race.
The Handicapping Method you are using will show you QuickHorse's "Pre Race Rating" and "Post Race Rating" (if the race has already been run), and you can see immediately if this horse's class is above that of the Race Rating or not.
When you supertune this method you'll also find out if this particular way to judge the horses (Class) helps in any way with handicapping. Intuitively, you might guess that a horse with a higher class rating makes more sense to wager on that one of a lower class rating if you know nothing else.
Jockey/Trainer Rating is calculated in the following way -
Each outing the jockey/trainer is awarded a score. His score is his position DIVIDED by the field size.
For example, a winner in a race with 8 horses gets an initial value of 1/8 which is .125, however, next, this value is subtracted from 1, so the score would be .875. Finally multiply by 100, so the score for this particular races would be an 87.5
But the jockey/trainer rating is an average of all the jockey's/trainer's races over the past year, so, while each race gets a score, which can be calculated using the data and the algorithm above, the jockey/trainer rating will change from race to race as the results of the last race are averaged in.
Obviously the more horses running the more expert the jockey/trainer to come in 1st and the higher is his score for that race.
There
is a slight problem with this method in that the Jockey Ratings are NOT CURRENT
and up to date as of the time of the race. Since they are only calculated
prior to today's events, they can not possibly be UP TO DATE as a jockey riding
in the 9th race today, probably had other races and thus other Jockey
Ratings. These ratings will not be calculated for those races of TODAY
until the results charts are downloaded the NEXT DAY. At that point, going
back to this method will produce different results for Jockey Ratings.
There is no way to eliminate this discrepancy so you may notice that building a
tipsheet AFTER a race card is run (ie the next day after downloading results) is
different from the one you took to the track with you the day before.
This handicapping method has been created by our Custom Method Builder and you may use the Custom Method
Builder to see exactly how it is programmed.